December Rally Hopes Buoy Markets as Historic Trends Favor Bulls
US equity markets enter December with bullish momentum, as the S&P 500 approaches what has historically been its strongest month. Since 1928, the index has posted gains 73% of the time during this period—the highest win rate of any calendar month. Only 26 Decembers have closed negative across 97 years of trading history.
The Kobeissi Letter highlights this seasonal anomaly, noting institutional traders often position for year-end portfolio rebalancing. This year’s rally faces headwinds from recent downward trajectories, yet market participants appear undeterred—futures activity suggests heavy positioning for a repeat of historical performance.
Risk appetite remains elevated despite macroeconomic uncertainties. Traders continue rotating into growth-sensitive assets, with notable flows into AI-linked equities like Nvidia and crypto proxies including Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH). Exchange-traded products tracking digital assets have seen net inflows for 11 consecutive weeks, per CoinShares data.
